CLIMATE SCIENCE and the Unscientific MIND

 

Pants on Fire 2023
Geoffrey W. Sutton & Bing AI

CLIMATE SCIENCE and the Unscientific MIND

Challenging Thoughts About Climate Science

and Psychological Explanations

 

Climate science has become a political football. The teams of political rivals seek to exploit research about climate science to score points they can trade in for political power. Their fans cheer and sneer and look for penalties.

Now a scientist seems to reveal a weakness. Good scientists can look back on their studies and those of others to identify what should have or could have been considered. It’s the never ending quest we read in scientific journals, “more research is needed.”

Patrick Brown is a climate scientist. He’s caught some attention for his opinion piece about other variables that could account for the world’s wicked wildfires. Shannon Osaka does a good job of telling the complex story in WAPO, but I’m not sure the details will change the game.

But then he changes fields to become an amateur psychological scientist. Note his musing about WHY in the quote below.

 

So why does the press focus so intently on climate change as the root cause? Perhaps for the same reasons I just did in an academic paper about wildfires in Nature, one of the world’s most prestigious journals: it fits a simple storyline that rewards the person telling it. (Brown, 2023, September 12)

In his opinion piece he refers to such actual and quasi psychological concepts such as rewards ,  “reinforcing feedback loops,” narrative, and framing. I was thinking he missed confirmation bias.   But he didn’t.  He actually uses the term and applies it to the editors and reviewers of journals.

Whether Brown’s day in the sun extends to a week or so, is speculation. He offers a bit of insight into the problem of confirmation bias—that problematic cognitive bent that influences human minds to search for evidence supporting our beliefs and ignoring contradictory evidence. I’ve seen it in political sparring, clergy sermonizing, psychological writing, and yes, even myself.

I evaluated a lot of scientists and brilliant people in my career. No matter how high the IQ scores or deserved level of prestige, their brains were not perfectly logical thinking machines. A number of biases interfere with accurate thinking.

[Read more in Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.]

The good news is, over the long haul, science is self-correcting. By that I mean, eventually the best theories win because they account for the available evidence and lead to new discoveries some of which save lives or make the quality of our lives much better.

I’m skeptical about climate science BUT, I am skeptical about most theories. I’m skeptical about what politicians say, what clergy preach, what advertisers promote, and what I read. I do not expect certainty when it comes to scientific findings or recommendations from friends. I do like data. I appreciate evidence.

Oddly, Brown’s piece shows he’s thinking like a scientist. He’s considering other factors that could account for a phenomenon. He’s not just going against a popular narrative; he’s fighting human nature. We like simple answers and avoid ambiguity, complexity, and uncertainty. I suggest that learning to live with ambiguity, complexity, and uncertainty is a mark of maturity.

I’ll leave Brown and other climate scientists to ponder the variables relevant to explaining global warming or destructive events. When it comes to explaining why Brown or anyone else does something, I suggest we consider multiple variables as well. 

Why would anyone think Brown has explained his own behavior or that of other scientists based on his answer to the “Why” question? 

Has he really considered all the relevant variables that account for human behavior in himself, journal editors, and peer reviewers? Was he able to predict the contribution of his article to the wellbeing of humankind?

Geoffrey W. Sutton, PhD is Emeritus Professor of Psychology. He retired from a clinical practice and was credentialed in clinical neuropsychology and psychopharmacology. His website is  www.suttong.com

 

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