The
Economist/YouGov
Poll takes the pulse of several attitudes relevant to the leadership and
direction of the United States. This poll is from November 2019.
There are lots of interesting data in the 457-page
pdf report, which is much more than I would care to blog about. However, those
who teach statistics and research methods may find the data interesting to some
students. And others may just find the results interesting for a myriad of
social media posts—like this one. (Scroll down for the viral post about the best president--Lincoln or Trump.)
Are we on track or off track?
The survey begins with a railroad journey
metaphor. Are we headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?
Overall, most Americans say we’re off on
the wrong track, 56%. Only people in related grouping variables think we are
going in the right direction (Republicans, Trump voters, conservatives). People
in the other grouping variables report being off track (gender, age, race,
income, region, registered voters).
[Now for a lesson—please ignore if you are
not interested in stats and research. In the behavioral sciences, the terms
male and female refer to sex, not gender as the pollster’s reported. Age groups
are interesting but arbitrary. The labels below “race” probably should be called
ethnic groups and nowadays so many of us have a mixed heritage.]
Who are our friends and our enemies?
What do Americans think about people in
other countries, that is, are they an ally, friendly, unfriendly, an enemy, or
not sure? An interesting question with the aforementioned categories available for those wanting detail.
BEST FRIENDS
(my label based on over 75% responding as "ally" + "friendly"):
Canada 85%, United
Kingdom (77%)
Generally fine: Israel (64%), Japan (72%), South Korea (65%), Mexico (58%), France
(74%, close right?), Germany (70%)
Not so good:
China, Iran, North Korea, Russia
Quite mixed:
Saudi Arabia, Ukraine
- I’m thinking English speakers are
winners. Perhaps the perception of understanding helps? And, old combatants
are just fine—Japan, Germany. France should probably be up there if I
considered margin of error.
- Also, rhetoric works when it comes
to those nation not faring so well in the eyes of the American public.
- Worth a look—if
you have time, it’s worth a look to see how Americans in various categories
view other nations. Some countries like the UK do well in many categories e.g.,
Clinton (86%) and Trump (89%) voters. But, look at how 2016 voters favorably
view Mexico: Clinton 78% vs. Trump 56%.
How important is it if other countries
interfere with our elections?
Interference matters a lot to most Americans, 66% and
25% to some, but 9% responded it “Doesn’t matter at all.”
There's so much more
There’s a lot more to learn about attitudes
toward government leaders and beliefs about Russian or Ukrainian interference
in U.S. elections.
And there are details relating to
impeachment—the interest level of Americans in the hearings is quite divided
overall: Very 30%, Somewhat 33% and Not interested 37%. A lot of pages deal
with the impeachment hearings and testimony. The perception of witness honesty
is great stuff for psychology students. Trump supporters remain supportive and
loyal.
There are some interesting questions about the
favorability of many politicians in addition to the president e.g., Joe Biden,
Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren.
Trust in Government
There’s agreement (sort of) among the party
members in responding to the question: How much of the time do you think you
can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? For the response, “Just
about always” Democrats 6%, Republicans 5% and for the choice, “Most of the
time” Democrats 25%, Republicans 19%.
Crooks in DC?
Overall, most Americans believe there are “Quite
a few” crooked people running our government (63%).
How smart are our leaders?
About half or us think government officials
don’t know what they are doing (51%), 21% aren’t sure, and 28% report they “Know
what they’re doing.”
Are we better off now than four years
ago?
It’s a close split with 37% believing we
are better off now and 42% thinking we were better off four years ago. You might
guess there’s a political divide here—see page 120.
Predictions—the 2020 election
I like predictions. I suppose it’s human to
try to predict the future despite the fact that polls can be wrong—especially this
far from the election.
About Trump.
Given all the stuff about impeachment, it’s natural to wonder if people think
Trump will lose the 2020 election. Not unexpectedly, Americans are divided with
55% on the likely side and 39% on the not likely side. I have a problem with
the wording here. Participants can get confused with negatively worded
questions. Check it out on page 130. Republicans strongly support Trump compared
to Weld and Walsh.
The Democrats.
Currently, Democratic voters are likely to vote for the following:
Warren, Biden, Sanders, or Buttigieg. Warren and Biden are close. Younger
voters prefer Sanders. Black and Hispanic voters prefer Biden. Joe Sestak doesn’t
have much support. Have you heard about him?
There’s a lot more in this section dealing
with political candidates.
About the UK (nice of them to ask)
There are questions about American
perspectives on the UK. How does the Queen fare? Quite favorable it seems—69%,
only 12% unfavorable. And Prince Charles? Not so well at 42%, but not so bad
(34% unfavorable). Prince William beats his dad at 63% favorable and Kate’s a
winner too at 61%. Prince Harry ties his brother at 63% and his wife, Meghan
does ok at 58%.
HEADLINES!
So, this datum made headlines: 55% of 2016
Trump voters believe Donald Trump was a better president that Lincoln.
Overall, Americans endorse Lincoln at 75%.
See page 267 for details.
George W. Bush does better than Trump
overall (62%) but not among 2016 Trump voters (78%).
However, Regan trumps
Trump overall 78% and among 2016 Trump voters, 60%. It’s interesting to see how
others fare e.g, Eisenhower.
[Student note: Datum is the singular of
data, but you won’t see that in most news stories where writers write “data is”
instead of “data are.”]
I write about surveys. Here's my ad, buy Creating Surveys on AMAZON worldwide.
Very Important Issues-- Here's the percentage rating an issue "very important"
Economy 70%
Immigration 52%
Environment 50%
Terrorism 57%
Gay rights 23%
Education 59%
Health care 69%
Social Security 66%
Budget deficit 46%
War in Afghanistan 29%
Taxes 57%
Medicare 62%
Abortion 45%
Foreign policy 41%
Gun control 55%
International Trade & globalization 36%
[Question: Based on the data, what would
you expect politicians to talk about?]
I’m thinking savvy politicians will say different
things to different audiences—especially likely voters in states with large
electoral college votes.]
Even more stuff
There are pages on pages of data about the
issues and how they are being handled. Of course, you could also see the
details by level of importance and category of participants.
Several pages ask for opinions about Trump’s
personality characteristics such as “bold” and “inspiring.”
Stock Market Predictions
Only 22% believe the market will be lower
next year. I think this is a fool’s game, but people with retirement funds hope
for the best. Even among those with 100k or more income, only 25% predict a
lower market. By the way-- the market is down two days in a row as I write! [Almost done, page 441 of 457.]
Your job
Very few people are unhappy with their
current job (9%) or very unhappy (5%). That’s good news for most people and
their companies. I wonder what the 26% “very happy” people are doing.
A few facts about the survey on page 457.
Dates 24-26 November 2019
The survey was a stratified random sample.
The sample size of 1500 was adequate.
Registered voters were 1189.
Note--
The internet may have limited participation.
I don’t know how they corrected for response
set and response bias. Check out the link for more information on problems of bias in surveys.
I could have made a mistake in reporting the numbers. Kindly let me know so I can correct any errors.
Publications (many free downloads)
